September 2013 Registration Statistics

July, 2013 registration statistics are in

July, 2013 registration statistics are in

Republicans and Democrats continue to shrink. IPO has unusual fallback

Monthly Trends: The month of September showed continued losses in membership for the Republican and Democratic Parties. The IPO lost membership at the same rate as the major parties as well. The big mover in September was the non affiliated voters numbers. NAV’s registrations increased by 2,537.

While the “Other minor parties” catagory has seen the most growth percentage wise and has about the same total growth in registrants as NAV, all of that growth has been attributable to the Working Families Party, which has grown from 4,351 in December, 2012 to 8,939 in September, 2013. An increase of 4,588. So in reality, the other minor parties have lost almost 2%. Keep in mind that “All other minor parties” including the Working Families Party, still make up just 2.86% of total registered voters.

Here are the longer term trends.

Party_______Dec, 2012_________ July 2013       _______+/-_________+/-%

Dem                 870,500                     848,665               (21,835)         (2.5%)

Rep.                 682,731                     667,571              (15,160)         (2.22%)

NAV                 492,419                      496,067              +3,648             +.7%

IPO                   95,394                       97,165              +1,771             +1.87%

Other Minor      58,464                       62,113              + 3,649           +6.24%

TOTAL VOTER  2,199,508           2,171,581                 27,927          (1.30%)

Analysis: As long as a near equal number of Democrats and Republicans abandon the major parties, it seems unlikely that there will be any major changes. The less partisan voters who re-registered as NAV or i/Independent will still likely lean towards a Democratic or Republican position and vote accordingly.

Two things could change that calculus for these “leaners”

First, if the major parties move further right and left due to their loss of less partisan members and the influence of their more active partisans.

And second, if  the IPO is able to field some capable, moderately funded candidates to put on the ballot for the 2016 Primary election.

Let Us Vote

Ind VOterOregon Outpost has two new posts this week. The first “Let Us Vote” includes an online petition asking Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown to make sure that all Oregon voters get the same support and opportunities as Democratic and Republican registered voters.

The second post, related to the first, introduces a “Countdown to the political Mendoza Line”. Did you know that minor party and non affiliated voters will likely outnumber Republican voters within the next year? Probably before the 2014 primaries?

So, what these two posts inform us of is this. Oregon Democrats, who are clearly in charge of election laws by their majorities in both houses and the election process by virtue of the position of Kate Brown, are ready to financially support the election of Republican nominees but not support the inclusion of minor party and non affiliated voters in our democratic process.

So, perhaps you want to sign the Let Us Vote petition.

IPO surges in voter registration: August report

Voter registratio report

 

UPDATED: 9/4/2013 4 PM

Register to vote, or change your registration here:

Oregon’s August, 2013 voter registration report was posted yesterday. The Independent Party of Oregon and the Working Families Party were the big gainers. Again.

While overall voter growth barely moved (a gain of 631 out of over two million total voters) the Oregon Democratic Party lost 1,288 voters (a one month loss of .15%), and the Republican Party shed 1,034 members (a one month loss of .15%). The Democratic Party is shrinking faster than the Republican Party.

Meanwhile the Independent Party added 550 members (a one month increase  of .54%) and the Working Families Party added 877 members (a one month increase of 10%). The NAV’s gained 1,542 (a gain of .3%)

The trend continues. The IPO, Working Families parties and NAV voter growth outperform the major parties. And, the Democratic and Republican Parties losing total members, and market share.

The Working Families Party continues to have enormous percentage growth, though their total membership is still just 9% of the IPO membership. But, it’s a trend worth watching, and may be attributable to the fact that the Working Families Party is closely allied with organized labor, and our Democratic Governor has been at odds with at least the public employee unions. It’s possible that labor unions have a strategy of growing the WFP, then using fusion voting laws and independent expenditure campaigns to put primary pressure on Democrats who aren’t as friendly as they would like towards labor.

Here are the longer term trends.

Party_______Dec, 2012_________ July 2013       _______+/-_________+/-%

Dem                 870,500                     849,876               (20,624)         (2.37%)

Rep.                 682,731                     668,579              (14,152)         (2.07%)

NAV                 492,419                      493,530              +1,111             +.2%

IPO                   95,394                       97,332              +1,938             +2.0%

Other Minor      58,464                       61,578              + 3,114            +5.3%

TOTAL VOTER  2,199,508                2,170,895         (28,613)          (1.30%)

The growth in minor parties is accelerating during the time we’ve tracked the trends. My sources tell me that 7% of never before registered voters are registering as  IPO members. The fact that the IPO is clearly outperforming the NAV numbers belies the claim that people are confused about “Independent”. But, even if there is some confusion, the NAV and IPO voters are almost assuredly mainly centrists. Otherwise, they would register with one of the other minor parties to the left or right of the major parties.

The Democrats and Republicans will face a conundrum soon. With the IPO on the verge of major party status, any voter registration drive by the major parties is almost sure to add more IPO NAV and minor party voters. If the Republicans target Rural Oregon, many of the moderate Republicans may opt for the IPO or NAV. And in Portland frustrated conservative Democrats who are socially liberal are unlikely to opt for the Oregon GOP, but may want to be part of the next major party, or move to the NAV column. In any event, a major voter registration drive by either party is likely to put the IPO into major party status for the 2016 elections.

To register to vote. Or to change your registration. Visit the Secretary of State online registration page.

New from Oregon Outpost – The two Oregon GOP’s

Think for yourself

Think for yourself

From Oregon Outpost, August 19, 2013. An analysis of the two factions of the national GOP by political science academics. Not just some talking heads or paid flacks. This is the stuff that the real leaders of the parties read and consider. Some questions for Oregonians.

  • Does the study reflect the makeup of the Oregon GOP?
  • Do the non tea party republicans believe the tea party faction will fade away?
  • How will the Oregon Democratic Party react to the ever more isolated Oregon GOP leadership? Is there any reason to compromise on their base issues?
  • Where will disaffected Republicans go? Will they stay and fight for their party? Will they go along with the tea party agenda for now, and hope that they will fade away or lose energy? Will they become independent and simply pick and choose who they vote for in the future? Will they join the IPO in hopes that they can become the legitimate opposition party to the Democrats?

From Suzanne Gallagher to Art Robinson

Art Robinson - New Oregon GOP Chair

Art Robinson – New Oregon GOP Chair

This weekend the Oregon GOP ousted Suzanne Gallagher as chair of their party and installed former Congressional candidate Art Robinson as new chair.

A party chair can take on different responsibilities and duties. In order of importance they are; Fundraising. Management and Party spokesperson.

Note that party chairs generally don’t make policy. They manage the affairs of the party, and seek to establish a strong financial footing for GOP candidates.

But they can step in as party spokesperson if there is otherwise no recognized state party leader.

And therein lies the potential problem for the Oregon GOP. The Oregon GOP currently has no recognized state leader. Continue reading

July voter registration statistics – The trend continues

July, 2013 registration statistics are in

July, 2013 registration statistics are in

July, 2013 statistics from the Secretary of States office are showing the same trends as we’ve been tracking for some time. Major parties shrinking, minor parties growing, non affiliated voters holding steady.

Below again are 2013 year to date numbers. Using December, 2012 as a baseline, these figures represent the changes in for the year 2013 alone.

Also below are some tidbits from changes from June to July 2013.

 

Party_______Dec, 2012_________ July 2013       _______+/-_________+/-%

Dem                 870,500                     851,164               (19,336)         (2.22%)

Rep.                 682,731                     669,613              (13,118)         (1.92%)

NAV                 492,419                      491,988              (431)               (0.1%)

IPO                   95,394                       96,782              +1,388             +1.46%

Other Minor      58,464                        60,717               + 2,253          +3.85%

TOTAL VOTER  2,199,508                2,170,264          (29,244)          (1.33%)

  • Both major parties continue to lose shares of total voters greater than natural attrition.
  • Working Families party makes up all of the “other minor party” gains. From December 2012 through July 2013, it has grown from 4,351 members to 7,705 members. A gain of 3,354 members. However, minor parties other than the IPO still make up only 2.8% of  total voters.
  • Total NAV and minor parties now number 649,487. Just 20,126 voters shy of registered Republicans.

Here are some notable trends for the June- July period (Not included here, but you can find them at the SoS link provided in first paragraph)

  • While total voters in Oregon went up 2,576, Democratic voters shrunk by 688, and Republican voters shrunk by 122. Based on the overall size of the major parties, the Democratic party should have gained 1,030 voters, and the Republican Party should have gains about 765 voters. The D’s under performed by 1,718 voters and the Republican Party by 887 voters. So the Democratic Party fared worse, again, this past month.
  • The NAV and minor parties, gained a total of 3,406 between them. Of these, 57% registered NAV, 12% registered IPO, and a whopping 28% registered WFP.

With more evidence showing that the Democratic Party is becoming  more liberal and the Republican Party is becoming more conservative, perhaps the registration trend indicates the electorate is becoming more detached from the political process.

But, as one Oregon Democratic field operative said to me, “we don’t care how people are registered, we only care about how they vote”. So, as long as the NAV and IPO remain disorganized, a point of pride for many NAV’s, don’t expect the parties to modify their positions to take into account growing discontent.